Memo to Larry Ellison: The Roman Coliseum halted gladiator combats around 435 A.D. SAP has thrown in the towel and has no interest in continuing a court battle. Hewlett-Packard executives are refusing to accept service on your lawsuits and HP’s newly named chief executive Leo Apotheker is laying low, presumably dodging your increasingly vituperative verbal assaults. You’ve got no takers for the bloody, bare knuckles brawl you crave. What does that tell you?
It should signal an end to the Circus Maximus sideshow but it won’t.
No one desires this much attention or sticks their chin out spoiling for a fight like Ellison. And in an industry like high tech that’s overflowing with giant egos, that’s saying something. It’s true that Ellison’s antics always make for reams and reams of good copy. Reporters calling for comments on the latest developments don’t even bother to suppress their mirth. Enough is enough, though. The Larry Ellison Show would be more amusing if corporate customers weren’t getting caught in the crossfire.
The ongoing court case involving SAP’s acquisition TomorrowNow is not of course just about wresting an enormous $4 billion settlement out of SAP for copyright infringement. Where Oracle’s chief executive is involved, it’s never just about the matter at hand. There’s always a bigger agenda and it usually involves a grand spectacle.
In this case, Ellison is attempting to shoot and wound/kill two competitors — SAP and Hewlett-Packard with the same bullet — all the while “treating” industry watchers to a front row seat to his latest histrionics.
Remember that 60s axiom, “What if they gave a war and nobody came?” That’s exactly how competitors are reacting to Ellison’s bitter, bellicose attacks. The other combatants are surrendering (SAP) or hiding from him (HP’s Apotheker) and Ellison refuses to cease hostilities.
One can only shake one’s head at the serio-comic spectacle of SAP executives who have admitted that the now defunct TomorrowNow infringed on Oracle’s copyright. Earlier this week SAP co-CEO Bill McDermott apologized to Oracle in Federal court (when does that ever happen?), acknowledging that SAP had not been “appropriately vigilant” in overseeing the actions of TomorrowNow. For those not familiar with the case TomorrowNow illegally downloaded software and support documents from Oracle Web sites.
Ellison is unlikely to get that $4 billion in damages he claims Oracle is owed for TomorrowNow’s copyright infringement. Ellison testified that up to 30 percent of Oracle’s PeopleSoft customers and 10 percent of Oracle’s Siebel Systems users might have defected. But when pressed to provide actual figures, he revealed that Oracle had only lost about 350 customers and not thousands.
Oracle customers concerned over rising support costs, product security issues
Ellison should count his blessings. Oracle may in fact face customer defections in double digit percentages over the coming months and he won’t have anyone to blame but himself.
Over the past four years, Ellison has spent over $40 billion, gobbling up over 40 companies including large companies like PeopleSoft, Siebel Systems, BEA Systems, Sun Microsystems and ATG. Under the best circumstances, even the most amicable and complementary mergers and acquisitions are challenging for the merged entities and their respective installed customer bases. Oracle’s seemingly non-stop M&A spree has been characterized by several, very public, protracted internecine conflicts – most notably PeopleSoft.
Ellison continues to spew venom against his rivals while Oracle’s own customers fume. The Sun Microsystems SPARC, Solaris and MySQL users or what’s left of them, are increasingly restive. They are rightfully concerned about the fate of these acquired products under Oracle’s brand. They are also increasingly vocal in their complaints about rising service and support costs and worsening security. Oracle’s own database platform has had the dubious distinction of recording the highest number of security vulnerabilities of any of the major databases for the last eight years, according to statistics compiled by the National Institute of Standards and Technologies (NIST).
On these subjects Ellison is silent.
Last week, Oracle sought to staunch a backlash from confused and frustrated MySQL users worried about new pricing and packaging options. Rumors swept the Web that Oracle was reportedly doubling the pricing. There’s more to the story than that, but the MySQL open source database pricing and support has increased since Oracle acquired Sun. To be fair, Oracle simplified the complex MySQL product packaging and support pricing structure that existed under Sun. Oracle now gives all MySQL users 24×7 global support. Under Sun, users who purchased the MySQL Basic package for $599 were not entitled to any phone support. Oracle now gives MySQL Basic customers support; however the new entry level pricing has risen from $599 to $2,000 for the Standard Edition. Additionally, large enterprises that paid Sun Microsystems $4,999 for the MySQL Cluster Carrier Grade Edition also got sticker shock: Oracle hiked the price to $10,000 per server.
And that’s not all. Earlier this year, Oracle quietly also initiated widespread changes to the Sun Microsystems’ SunSpectrum support (which officially ended in mid-March) replacing it with a new program. This significantly hiked support costs for many former Sun customers at a time when many businesses are struggling to find the funds for new product upgrades. On a positive note, support renewals for existing SunSpectrum contracts are now priced at a flat annual price based on the individual user’s SunSpectrum contract. The renewal price is the same as the SunSpectrum contract currently in place. However, users who read the fine print, will note that Oracle changed the terms and conditions of its hardware warranties and Premier Support for Systems contracts.
Translation: Oracle cut back on standard support services and will provide onsite coverage only for specified products. Oracle’s new product coverage and support fees for the former Sun products and services take the concept of “nickel and diming” to new heights.
Customers that want 24×7 coverage, onsite response and faster responses times above and beyond a limited one-year warranty and Monday through Friday phone support will pay handsomely for the top tier coverage. Oracle now requires customers to buy support for every component, part and spare part they order. There are no add-ons to existing contracts; customers don’t have the option of cancelling contracts and customers receive not credit for any equipment covered under their contracts if they decide to take them out of service or dispose of them.
Corporations that opt not to purchase a support agreement at the time they buy their products will pay a hefty “reinstatement fee” of 150 percent of the standard support for the period of time between the initial product sale and the date they purchase the support. The 150 percent fee is exclusive of the standard yearly support contract prices!
Businesses that want to hang on to their capital expenditure monies are well advised to instruct their IT managers to learn how to install and replace parts themselves. Oracle will charge customers incremental fees to install any “self-service replacement part.”
Oracle is not alone in initiating price hikes for service and support. But its users might have less cause to grumble if they were satisfied with the quality of the support.
The latest ITIC 2010-2011 Global Server Hardware and Server OS Reliability Survey, which polled over 400 businesses worldwide found that Oracle products received the lowest ratings for security and for the quality of its service and support of any of the major vendors. Only 31 percent of the respondents gave Oracle an “excellent” or “very good” rating for product performance, service and support. This is in sharp contrast to the over 75 percent of survey participants who gave rivals HP and IBM and 70 percent of Dell users who gave those vendors “excellent” and “very good” marks for their hardware product performance, service and support.
And in Oracle’s core competency databases, both IBM’s DB2 and Microsoft’s SQL Server significantly scored higher satisfaction ratings among the survey respondents. Over 80 percent of those polled gave IBM DB2 and Microsoft SQL Server “excellent” or “very good” ratings compared to the 43 percent of respondents who gave the Oracle DB an “excellent” or “very good” rating.
Some of the anecdotal user comments about Oracle support were scathing.
“Our Sun support has become even more abysmal since crazy Larry purchased them; it’s hard to believe,” remarked an IT manager at a large healthcare organization with over 100 servers.
Oracle registered the highest percentage of dissatisfied users, with 20 percent or one-in-five respondents judging Oracle (Sun) hardware products, service and support to be “poor” or “unsatisfactory.” By contrast only a small five percent minority of HP users, four percent of Dell customers and less than three percent of IBM users rated those companies hardware offerings to be “poor” or “unsatisfactory.”
Focus on Business Not Brawling
It’s clear that SAP clearly has no interest in continuing its court battle with Oracle. Since Ellison is obviously still spoiling for a fight he might instead get himself booked on a TV show like “Survivor” or Donald Trump’s Celebrity Apprentice. Alternatively he could see if one of the boxing associations will oblige him and arrange a match with one of their champions.
Ellison and Oracle should let the lawyers hammer out an appropriate settlement with SAP. And for the sake of its large common customer base, call off the search to serve Apotheker the subpoena, tone down the anti-HP diatribe and get back to work.
The best thing Oracle can do is to concentrate on shipping high quality, high performance and highly secure products and delivering top notch service worthy of those pricy support premiums.
Otherwise, one of these days Ellison might be surprised to find that the Oracle customers, like the noble gladiator Spartacus have revolted and defected to competitors who wisely paid more attention to business than brawling.

Thanks to everyone who responded to the independent, joint ITIC/Sunbelt Software survey on Windows 7, Desktop Infrastructure and Cloud Services deployment trends and issues. Please NOTE: no vendors sponsored this survey or in any way influenced the results.
Over 400 of you from 22 countries took time out of your busy schedules to respond to our poll.

Windows 7 is a winner!

As we noted in our previous blog, Windows 7 officially celebrates its 1st birthday, today — October 22nd. And there are plenty of reasons to celebrate. Yes, Windows 7 has sold over 240 million copies, to date making it the fastest selling OS in Microsoft’s (or any vendor’s) history. And yes, many of those sales can be attributed to pent-up demand because the overwhelming majority of the Windows installed base elected to remain on Windows XP and skip Vista. Admittedly, many organizations would opt to remain on Windows XP indefinitely if Microsoft was not ending support for the nearly 10 year old desktop OS. Those disclaimers aside, Windows 7′s success is no fluke.

A three-quarters majority – 73 percent of the 400+ respondents to the latest joint Sunbelt Software/ITIC poll, gave Windows 7 an “excellent,” “very good” or “good” rating.
That’s very close to the 80 percent majority of beta and early adopters who gave the Windows 7 the same high marks in the 2009 survey. The latest responses, coming after corporations have used Windows 7 in production for a full year, provides the best evidence that the Microsoft operating system is living up to the hype and fulfilling business’ needs. Only a small three percent minority of survey respondents gave Windows 7 a “Poor” and/or “Unsatisfactory” rating.
And a 72 percent majority of survey participants say they have already deployed, are in the process of deploying or will shortly deploy Windows 7. Only 7 percent of those polled indicated that they are “unlikely” to deploy Windows 7 at all and none of the respondents said they plan on switching to a rival operation system.
Lack of funds was the chief reason cited by the remaining 21 percent of respondents who said they have no definitive plans to upgrade to Windows 7 over the next 12 months. Anecdotal user comments confirmed that many companies are still in the grip of a recession and will wait until they upgrade their desktop hardware to migrate to Windows 7.
Windows XP is still the most widely deployed desktop OS – with 90 percent of the respondents indicating it was present in their shops. But Windows 7 is catching up quickly: 83 percent of those polled say they’ve deployed Windows 7 compared to only 37 percent who have Windows Vista.
Interestingly, the Apple Mac is the most popular non-Windows operating system as mainstream enterprises continue to adopt it. According to our poll, Apple Macs are present in 28 percent of your networks – which is three times more than the two most popular Linux and open source operating system distributions. Nine percent of survey respondents indicated they use Red Hat Linux and Ubuntu – the latter of which has made steady gains in the last two years.
Among large enterprises, IBM’s AIX was clearly the most popular UNIX distribution, besting both HP UX and Sun Solaris (now owned by Oracle) by a 2 to 1 margin.
Nearly two-thirds or 60% of you indicated you will deploy Windows 7; 30% of you say you’ll migrate to the new Microsoft desktop operating system within the first six months while another 30% say intend to make the transition sometime within the year. Four out of 10 businesses – 40% — have no definitive migration timetable.

Windows 7 is now officially a year old. Since it was released October 22, 2009, Microsoft has sold over 240 million copies of the operating system — approximately seven copies per second. That makes it the fastest selling operating system in Microsoft’s history or any vendor’s history. Some industry pundits estimate that Windows 7 sales will top 300 million within the next six-to-eight months.
Microsoft has plenty of other reasons to celebrate Windows 7’s first birthday. Windows 7 has also been one of the most stable, reliable and secure releases in Microsoft’s history.
A three-quarters majority – 73 percent of the 400+ respondents to the latest joint ITIC/Sunbelt Software poll, gave Windows 7 an “excellent,” “very good” or “good” rating.
That’s very close to the 80 percent majority of beta and early adopters who gave the Windows 7 the same high marks in the 2009 ITIC/Sunbelt Software survey. The latest responses, coming after corporations have used Windows 7 in production for a full year, provides the best evidence that the Microsoft operating system is living up to the hype and fulfilling business’ needs. Only a small three percent minority of survey respondents gave Windows 7 a “Poor” and/or “Unsatisfactory” rating.
Windows 7’s immediate and intermediate future appears similarly rosy: a 72 percent majority of survey participants say they have already deployed, are in the process of deploying or will shortly deploy Windows 7. Only seven percent of those polled indicated that they are “unlikely” to deploy Windows 7 at all and none of the respondents said they plan on switching to a rival operation system.
Lack of funds was the chief reason cited by the remaining 21 percent of respondents who said they have no definitive plans to upgrade to Windows 7 over the next 12 months. Anecdotal user comments confirmed that many companies are still in the grip of a recession and will wait until they upgrade their desktop hardware to migrate to Windows 7.
So great has been the demand for Windows 7, that it has fueled record revenue and earnings for Microsoft over the last three fiscal quarters. Microsoft recorded record revenue of $16.04 billion for the 2010 fourth fiscal quarter ended June 30.
In fact, Microsoft’s financials and balance sheet over the last several quarters is pure gold (see below) and is or should be the envy of just about any business.

Microsoft by the Numbers
Profit Margin: 30.02%
Operating Margin: 39.51%
Return on Assets: 18.82%
Return on Equity: 43.76%
Revenue: $62.48B

Quarterly Revenue Growth: 22.40%
Gross Profit: $50.09B
Quarterly Earnings Growth: 48.40%
Total Cash: $36.56B

Total Debt: $5.97B

Source: Capital IQ

Instead, many industry experts and observers paint a grim picture of the 35 year-old Microsoft in a midlife crisis, well past its prime and unable to compete in new and emerging markets like smart phones, search engines, online search and advertising and the cloud against edgier rivals, most notably Apple and Google. Recent articles have made much of the fact that Microsoft garners far fewer headlines these days – about one-third to one-half as many mentions – as Apple, Dell, Google, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Oracle, Research in Motion (RIM) and VMware to name a few.
Press of course, is relative, depending on the type of news one is generating. Still the prevailing sentiments in the news business are that “No news is not good news” and “It’s better to be damned than ignored.”
Microsoft executives are no doubt grateful that for a change, they are not one of the headliners in the increasingly vitriolic verbal volleyball that characterizes HP and Oracle’s disintegrating partnership. Similarly, press reports about Microsoft and its executives have been remarkably devoid of scandals – such as those that have recently rocked the HP board of directors.
That then begs the question, if Microsoft’s financials are so rosy, its core Windows and Office products in the black and thriving, why then are some industry observers writing the company’s epitaph?
A Tale of Two Microsoft’s
The answer of course, is that while the numbers aren’t lying, they don’t tell the whole story. For all intents and purposes, there are two Microsoft’s: one is the company that exists in reality and the other exists in the public’s perception. And the two Microsoft’s are indivisible.
The reality is Microsoft’s core businesses – Windows and Office continue to thrive – for now. The industry however, is inexorably changing. It is morphing from a fixed premises, subscription-based licensing model that has been the foundation of Microsoft’s astounding success and dominance over the past three decades to an increasingly mobile workforce that uses smart phones (Blackberry, iPhone, Android et al); tablets (the Apple iPad) and free Email and applications (Google Mail, Google Docs) to stay connected. In these emerging environments, Microsoft is playing catch-up and struggling to stay relevant as rivals like Google and Apple continually assault its core applications businesses.
It doesn’t help Microsoft’s case when high level executives decide to exit the company “to pursue other interests.” Chief Software Architect, Ray Ozzie, the iconic developer of Lotus Notes, is the latest high profile departure. Ozzie, who was touted as Bill Gates’ successor as Chief Software Architect, announced earlier this week that he was leaving Microsoft. No departure date has been publicly announced and until he exits Ozzie will lend his considerable talents to the entertainment division.
Ozzie’s exit follows on the heels of Robbie Bach and J. Allard’s departures earlier this year as executives in the entertainment and mobile divisions, respectively. Bach and Allard reportedly clashed with Microsoft chief executive and other executives on technology direction. Such divisions were made sharper by the flagging fortunes of Microsoft’s mobile and entertainment initiatives. After suffering the stinging embarrassment of pulling its KIN 1 and KIN 2 phones off the market on June 30, a scant six weeks after the product debuted to near non-existent sales.
The company is now regrouping around the Windows Phone 7, which it is targeting at business users. The new Microsoft mobile OS has garnered good reviews so far, now it has got to get users onto the platform. Microsoft will reportedly spend $400 in a fall and winter marketing campaign throughout the U.S. and Europe. Microsoft has more than just money invested in Windows Phone 7’s success. If it fails to gain tangible and significant traction, Microsoft may effectively be shut out of the lucrative but increasingly competitive and crowded smart phone arena.
Microsoft has other definite challenges – and they are daunting ones. It must:
• Make more headway in the search market. Bing is a very good search engine and does have traction. The latest statistics released by ComScore earlier this month, show Bing with an 11.2 percent market share. However, that is far behind Google’s 66 percent.
• Clarify its Azure and BPOS cloud strategies. Microsoft has made significant strides in its cloud offerings and strategies. But its marketing is still muddy. Microsoft must craft a cogent and cohesive cloud strategy and communicate it so that it resonates with the masses of existing Windows customers and potential users.
• Retain and attract top talent. Truthfully, the number and caliber of executive departures from Microsoft over the past several years has been no better or worse than the majority of high tech firms. But Microsoft is under a microscope and is judged more harshly than most of its rivals. Many of the departures were predictable; coming after decades of tenure and after the executives in question had made millions. That said Microsoft must retain and attract top talent. Easier said than done, I know.

The biggest blow of all of course, was Bill Gates’ decision to retire from day-to-day Microsoft operations to concentrate on his philanthropic pursuits. This is great for Gates and his charities but he’s as close as you get to the indispensable man. Remember how Apple’s stock stumbled when speculation was rampant during 2009 about Steve Jobs’ health? Microsoft has also taken a beating in the press with rumors that Ballmer may leave or be forced out of the top spot. The truth is every high tech firm needs a visible face like Jobs at Apple, the triumvirate of Larry Page, Sergey Brin and Eric Schmidt at Google and of course, Larry Ellison at Oracle. Right now, there are no obvious successors or heirs apparent to Gates or Ballmer. For Microsoft’s sake Ballmer should stay at the helm for the time being.
Despite Microsoft’s issues, it would be a big mistake to write the company off. There are lots of positives. They include:
• Revenue and entrenched market share and continued dominance in the Windows and Office markets which should continue for the next several years.
• The Xbox Kinect and Windows Phone 7 appear to be gaining real traction.
• Broad, deep portfolio of cloud products which has shown impressive growth in the past 12 months.
• Robotics: Microsoft is also a pioneer in another crucial emerging market: robotics. Microsoft’s Surface is a multi-touch, combination hardware/software product that enables users to manipulate digital content via gesture recognition, such as hand signals or real world objects. Available since 2008, it has racked up some impressive wins and is in use at Disneyland’s Tomorrowland, select Sheraton Hotels and Harrah’s Entertainment.
• Security and Reliability improvements in the core Windows products. Microsoft’s 2002 Trustworthy Computing Initiative has been a rousing success. According to the National Institute of Standards and Technology’s (NIST) Common Vulnerability and Exposures Database (CVE) SQL Server is the most secure of the major database platforms, with the fewest number of reported vulnerabilities associated with the platform since 2002. And the results from the ITIC 2010-2011 Global Server Hardware and Server OS Reliability survey indicate that 86 percent of respondents rate the security of Windows Server 2008 and Windows Server 2008 R2 as either “Excellent” or “Very Good.” Similarly, 50 percent of survey participants indicated that Windows Server security has “improved significantly” while 24 percent say it has “improved somewhat” over the last three years. At the same time, none of the survey participants indicated they were contemplating wholesale defections to rival platforms, although the number of individual users deploying Apple Macs and iPads is on the rise.

There is no question that Microsoft will survive and continue to thrive in its core markets. The looming question is can Microsoft get its groove back to aggressively mount a challenge to Apple, Google et al, in the lucrative mobile, online, entertainment and cloud markets. It must go back to its roots and aggressively play to its strengths. Microsoft’s $36.56 billion in cash should buy a lot of advertising and a lot of talent.